Closing the Infrastructure Gap

Written by Ryan McGuine // In 2017 the McKinsey Global Institute estimated that the world would need to spend $67 trillion by 2035, or $3.7 trillion annually on infrastructure in order to merely keep up with projected economic growth. This difference between current spending on infrastructure and the need for additional funding, commonly referred to as the "infrastructure gap," is present nearly everywhere, but is particularly detrimental to growth in low- and middle-income countries. Continue reading

The Elusive 1.5°C

Written by Ryan McGuine // In October, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a special report about preventing global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While there is slim chance that the world will prevent 1.5°C of warming, taking action is not futile — the report clearly establishes that the combination of research investment and technology deployment can prevent warming, and that any warming prevented is worth pursuing. Continue reading

Premature Deindustrialization: Economic Growth Then & Now

Written by Ryan McGuine // The conventional path for economic development has been to use industrialization as a means to enable rapid convergence. Over time, advanced economies have a natural tendency to deindustrialize, but Dani Rodrik has recently brought attention to a pattern of "premature deindustrialization." Continue reading

The Randomistas Shouldn’t Rule, but They Needn’t be Renounced

Written by Ryan McGuine // In August, Martin Ravallion wrote a working paper for the Center for Global Development titled Should the Randomistas (Continue to) Rule? questioning the wisdom of allowing proponents of randomized control trials to dictate the development research agenda. Continue reading

How We Use Energy in 2018

Written by Ryan McGuine // In June, oil supermajor BP released its 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy, a summary of the trends observed in the energy industry during the prior year and the economic factors driving those trends. BP's Statistical Review is published annually and is considered a benchmark for the energy industry. Continue reading

The Sustainable Development Goals

Written by Ryan McGuine // In the year 2000, the UN adopted the United Nations Millennium Declaration, which established the Millennium Development Goals — eight goals related to economic development with a target completion date of 2015. They were replaced with the Sustainable Development Goals, a set of objectives designed to “end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for all,” intended to be accomplished by 2030. Continue reading

Energy & Air Pollution

Written by Ryan McGuine // Many sources of energy generate air pollution when consumed. Air pollution is a concern because it has harmful effects on both human health and natural ecosystems. This post focuses on anthropogenic air pollution, since that is the one most associated with energy consumption. Continue reading

The Energy-Development Nexus

Written by Ryan McGuine // Energy and economic development significantly affect one another. Exactly how they do so, though, is far from straightforward and depends on a dizzying web of interrelated complex systems. Continue reading

The Causes of the Wealth of Nations

Written by Ryan McGuine // Sustained, long-term output per capita growth, often referred to simply as "economic growth" is the ultimate goal of most economic policy interventions. There are a number of models designed to explain how adjusting certain variables affects output per capita. The Solow Model is one of the simplest and most widely-used. Continue reading

The Nature of the Wealth of Nations

Written by Ryan McGuine // Before inquiring into the causes of development phenomena observed, it is a good idea to first establish just what phenomena are observed. Toward those ends, Nicholas Kaldor presented a set of six stylized facts in 1961 designed to summarize what had been learned about economics in the 20th century and establish a research agenda framework. Following the same line of reasoning in the 21st century, Charles Jones and Paul Romer presented another set of six facts in 2009 — dubbed the "New Kaldor Facts." Continue reading